Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
